Dr. Gregor Leckebusch

CENTA Director, Reader in Meteorology and Climatology
University of Birmingham


Dr Gregor C Leckebusch is Reader in Meteorology and Climatology at the University of Birmingham, which he joint in 2011. In 2010/11 he was acting chair of Dynamical Meteorology at the University of Leipzig (Germany). Since his Habilitation in 2009, he holds an Associate Professorship at the Freie University of Berlin (Institute for Meteorology), where he worked since 2004. Previously he was a post-doctoral researcher at the University of Cologne, researching on regional meteorological extreme event modelling, impact assessment, and Polar Meteorology and Climate. He was awarded a PhD in Meteorology based on his work to meteorological diagnostics of polar ice cores by means of paleoclimate model simulations.

Research Interests

Dr Leckebusch is a leading expert in natural science research on meteorological and climatological extreme events and related impact assessments. He played a key role in multiple national and international interdisciplinary projects dedicated to natural variability of and anthropogenic changes in extremes and impacts. Focus of his actual research is a better understanding of physical processes in the coupled climate system in order to quantify related uncertainties from different sources.

Current Projects and Collaborations

Dr Leckebusch’s research at Birmingham and his former affiliations (Berlin, Leipzig and Cologne) aims at the improved understanding of meteorological and climatological extremes and their impact on society and economy. His projects have demonstrated outstanding innovative and sustained international research excellence as well as leadership and management qualities. Current projects and collaborations include:

INPAIS Project:


Key Papers

Peer reviewed publications

Befort, D.J., S. Wild, J.R. Knight, J.F. Lockwood, H.E. Thornton, L. Hermanson, P.E. Bett, A. Weisheimer, and G.C. Leckebusch, 2018: Seasonal Forecast Skill for Extra-tropical Cyclones and Windstorms. Quart J Royal Met Soc; accepted 16.9.2018; doi: 10.1002/qj.3406

Walz, M.A., M.G. Donat and G.C. Leckebusch, 2018: Drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds in Europe in the ECMWF System 4 and a statistical model. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres; https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD027958

Chen, W, Lu, Y, Sun, S, Duan, Y and GC Leckebusch, 2018: Hazard Footprint-Based Normalization of Economic Losses from Tropical Cyclones in China during 1983–2015.  International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, Vol 9, (2), 195-206. Doi: 10.1007/s13753-018-0172-y

Walz, Michael A., Daniel J. Befort, Nicolas Otto Kirchner‐Bossi, Uwe Ulbrich, Gregor C. Leckebusch, 2018: Modelling serial clustering and inter-annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large-scale drivers. Intern J Climatology, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5481.

Grieger, J., G.C. Leckebusch, C.C. Raible, I. Rudeva, I. Simmonds, 2018: Subantarctic cyclones identified by 14 tracking methods, and their role for moisture transports into the continent. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 70:1, 1454808.

DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2018.1454808. https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2018.1454808.

Walz, M.A., T. Kruschke, H. Rust, U. Ulbrich, and G.C. Leckebusch, 2017: Quantifying the extremity of windstorms for regions featuring infrequent events.

Atmospheric Science Letters, 18, 315–322. doi:10.1002/asl.758

Hellmer, H. H., M. Rhein, G. Heinemann, J. Abalichin, W. Abouchami, O. Baars, U. Cubasch, K. Dethloff, L. Ebner, E. Fahrbach, M. Frank, G. Gollan, R. Greatbatch, J. Grieger, V. Gryanik, M. Gryschka, J. Hauck, M. Hoppema, O. Huhn, T. Kanzow, B. P. Koch, G. König-Langlo, U. Langematz, G. C. Leckebusch, C. Lüpkes, S. Paul, A. Rinke, M. Rutgers van der Loeff, B. Rost, M. Schröder, G. Seckmeyer, T. Stichel, V. Strass, R. Timmermann, S. Trimborn, U. Ulbrich, C. Venchiarutti, U. Wacker, S. Willmes, D. Wolf-Gladrow, 2016: Meteorology and oceanography of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean - a review of German achievements from the last decade. Ocean Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s10236-016-0988-1.

Befort DJ, S. Wild, T Kruschke, U Ulbrich, and GC Leckebusch, 2016: Different Long-term Trends of Extra-tropical Cyclones and Windstorms in ERA-20C and NOAA-20CR Reanalyses. Atmospheric Science Letters, 17, 586-595. doi:10.1002/asl.694 

Pardowitz, T., D. Befort, G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich, 2016: Estimating uncertainties from high resolution simulations of extreme wind storms and consequences for impacts. Meteorol Z, Vol. 25, No. 5 (2016), p. 531 – 541. DOI 10.1127/metz/2016/0582. 

Osinski, R., Lorenz, P., Kruschke, T., Voigt, M., Ulbrich, U., Leckebusch, G. C., Faust, E., Hofherr, T., and Majewski, D., 2016: An approach to build an event set of European wind storms based on ECMWF EPS. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 255-268, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-255-2016, 2016. 

Befort, D.J., G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Cubasch, 2016: Intra-seasonal Variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon: Wet and Dry Events in COSMO-CLM. Climate Dynamics, Volume 47, Issue 7, pp 2635–2651. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-2989-7. 

Grieger, J., G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich, 2016: Net precipitation of Antarctica: thermo-dynamical and dynamical parts of the climate change signal. Journal of Climate, Volume 29, Issue 3 (February 2016) pp. 907-924.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00787.1 

Hillier, J.K., N. Macdonald, G.C. Leckebusch, and A. Stavrinides, 2015: Interactions between primary weather-driven hazards and their cost. Environ. Res. Lett., 10 (10), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104003. 

Wild, S., D.J. Befort, G.C. Leckebusch, 2015: Was the extreme storm season 2013-14 over the North Atlantic and the UK triggered by changes in the West-Pacific Warm Pool? [In “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”].
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S29-S34. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00118.1 

Kruschke, T., H.W. Rust, C. Kadow, W.A. Mueller, H. Pohlmann, G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich, 2015: Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms. Meteorol. Z., accepted 19.5.2015, in press. doi: 10.1127/metz/2015/0641 

Befort, D. J., Fischer, M., Leckebusch, G. C., Ulbrich, U., Ganske, A., Rosenhagen, G., and H. Heinrich, 2015: Identification of storm surge events over the German Bight from atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (NHESS), 15, 1437–1447. www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/15/1437/2015/doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1437-2015

Leckebusch, G.C. and A. Abdussalam, 2015: Climate and Socioeconomic Influences on Interannual Variability of Cholera in Nigeria. Health & Place, Volume 34, July 2015, Pages 107-117, ISSN 1353-8292, doi: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2015.04.006, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1353829215000660

Nissen, K.M., U. Ulbrich, G.C. Leckebusch, and I. Kuhnel, 2014: Decadal windstorm activity in the North Atlantic-European sector and its relationship to the Meridional Overturning Circulation in an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations.
Climate Dynamics, 43:1545–1555. DOI 10.1007/s00382-013-1975-6.

Abdussalam, A.F., A.J. Monaghan, D.F. Steinhoff, V.M. Dukic, M.H. Hayden, T.M. Hopson, J.E. Thornes, and G.C. Leckebusch, 2014: The Impact of Climate Change on Meningitis in Northwest Nigeria: An Assessment Using CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations. Weather, Climate and Society, 6, 371–379. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00068.1

Kruschke, T., Rust, H.W., Kadow, C., Leckebusch, G.C., and Ulbrich, U., 2014: Evaluating Decadal Predictions of Northern Hemispheric Cyclone Frequencies. 
Tellus A, 66, 22830, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v66.22830

Grieger, J., G.C. Leckebusch, M.G. Donat, M. Schuster, U. Ulbrich, 2014: Southern Hemisphere winter cyclone activity under recent and future climate conditions in multi-model AOGCM simulations.
Int. J. Climatology, 34 (12), 3400–3416, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3917. 

Abdussalam, A.F., A.J. Monaghan, V.M. Dukic, M.H. Hayden, T.M. Hopson, G.C. Leckebusch, and J. Thornes, 2014: Climate influences on interannual variability of meningitis incidence in northwest Nigeria.
Weather, Climate and Society. Vol. 6, No. 1, 62-76. doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00004.1 

Nissen, K.M., G.C. Leckebusch, J.G. Pinto, U. Ulbrich, 2014: Mediterranean cyclones and wind storms in a changing climate.
Reg. Environ. Change, Vol. 14, Issue 5, 1873-1890. DOI 10.1007/s10113-012-0400-8 

Nissen, K.N., U. Ulbrich and G.C. Leckebusch, 2013: Vb cyclones and associated rainfall extremes over Central Europe under present day and climate change conditions.
Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 22 (6), 649-660, DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0514 

Held, H., F.-W. Gerstengarbe, T. Pardowitz, J.G. Pinto, U. Ulbrich, U. Boehm, K. Born, M. Buechner, M.G. Donat, M.K. Karremann, G.C. Leckebusch, P. Ludwig, K.M. Nissen, T. Nocke, H. Oesterle, B.F. Prahl, P.C. Werner, O. Burghoff, 2013: Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector.
Climatic Change, Volume 121, Issue 2, pp 195-207. DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0872-7. 

Ulbrich, U., G.C. Leckebusch, J. Grieger, M. Schuster, M. Akperov, M. Yu. Bardin, Y. Feng, S. Gulev, M. Inatsu, K. Keay, S.F. Kew, M.L.R. Liberato, P. Lionello, I.I. Mokhov, U. Neu, J.G. Pinto, C.C. Raible, M. Reale, I. Rudeva, I. Simmonds, N.D. Tilinina, I.F. Trigo, S. Ulbrich, X.L. Wang, H. Wernli and the IMILAST team, 2013: Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?
Meteorol. Z., 22 (1), 61-68. DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0420 

Neu, U., M.G. Akperov, N. Bellenbaum, R. Benestad, R. Blender, R. Caballero, A. Cocozza, H.F. Dacre, Y. Feng, K. Fraedrich, J. Grieger, S. Gulev, J. Hanley, T. Hewson, M. Inatsu, K. Keay, S.F. Kew, I. Kindem, G.C. Leckebusch, M.L.R. Liberato, P. Lionello, I.I. Mokhov, J.G. Pinto, C.C. Raible, M. Reale, I. Rudeva, M. Schuster, I. Simmonds, M. Sinclair, M. Sprenger, N.D. Tilinina, I.F. Trigo, S. Ulbrich, U. Ulbrich, X.L. Wang, H. Wernli, 2013: IMILAST – a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94 (4), 529-547. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1

Donat, M.G., G. C. Leckebusch, S. Wild, and U. Ulbrich, 2011: Future changes in European winter storm losses and extreme wind speeds inferred from GCM and RCM multi-model simulations. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1351-1370.

Donat, M.G., D. Renggli, S. Wild, L.V. Alexander, G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich, 2011: Reanalysis suggests long-term upward trend in European storminess since 1871. Geophys. Res. Let., 38, L14703, doi:10.1029/2011GL047995.

Leckebusch, G.C., B. Koffi, U. Ulbrich, J.G. Pinto, T. Spangehl, S. Zacharias, 2006: Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales. Climate Research, Vol. 31, 59-74.

Leckebusch, G.C., D. Renggli, and U. Ulbrich, 2008: Development and Application of an Objective Storm Severity Measure for the Northeast Atlantic Region.
Meteorol. Z., Vol. 17, No. 5, 575-587. DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0323. 

Leckebusch, G.C. and U. Ulbrich, 2004: On the relationship between cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change. Global and Planetary Change, 44 (1-4), 181-193.

Leckebusch, G.C., U. Ulbrich, L. Fröhlich, and J.G. Pinto, 2007: Property loss potentials for European mid-latitude storms in a changing climate. Geophys. Res. Letters, 34, L05703, doi:10.1029/2006GL027663

Leckebusch, G.C., A. Weimer, J.G. Pinto, M. Reyers, P. Speth, 2008: Extreme wind storms over Europe in present and future climate: a cluster analysis approach.
Meteorol. Z., Vol. 17, No. 1, 67-82. DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0266.

Nissen, K.M., G.C. Leckebusch, J.G. Pinto, D. Renggli, S. Ulbrich, and U. Ulbrich, 2010: Cyclones causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: characteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1379-1391.

Renggli, D., G.C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, S.N. Gleixner, E. Faust, 2011: The skill of seasonal ensemble prediction systems to forecast wintertime windstorm frequency over the North Atlantic and Europe.
Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 139, 3052–3068. doi: 10.1175/2011MWR3518.1

Ulbrich, U., G.C. Leckebusch, and J. Pinto, 2009: Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review. Theo. Appl. Climatology, Vol. 96, No. 1-2, 117-131. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-008-0083-8.

Ulbrich, U., J.G. Pinto, H. Kupfer, G.C. Leckebusch, T. Spangehl, M. Reyers, 2008: Changing Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks in an Ensemble of IPCC Climate Change Simulations. J. Climate, Vol. 21, No. 8, 1669-1679. DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1992.1.  

Further Reviewed Publications

Leckebusch, G.C., M. Donat, U. Ulbrich, and J.G. Pinto, 2008: Mid-latitude Cyclones and Storms in an Ensemble of European AOGCMs under ACC. CLIVAR Exchanges, No. 46, Vol. 13 (No.3), 3-5.

Other significant research outputs 

Leckebusch, G.C. and A. Ganske, 2013: Extreme Winds over the North Sea. In: Report on North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) (ongoing)

Cubasch, U., U. Ulbrich, G.C. Leckebusch, M. Donat, 2013: EASAC Fact sheet: Large-scale Windstorms, EASAC (European Academies Science Advisory Council) Working Group Report on Adaptation to Extreme Weather. ISBN 978-82-7144-101-2

Leckebusch, G.C., 2012: Contributing Author to section 2.2: Key climate variables. In: Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012. European Environment Agency Report, No 12/2012, pp300, ISSN 1725-9177. 

Book contributions

Ulbrich, U., Leckebusch, G. C. and Donat, M. G., 2013: The most costly natural hazard in Europe: windstorms.
In: Natural Disasters and Adaptation to Climate Change. Boulter, S., Palutikof, J., Karoly, D. and Guitart, D. (eds.) Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, in press.

Gualdi, S., S. Somot, W. May, S. Castellari, M. Déqué, M. Adani, V. Artale, A. Bellucci, J.S. Breitgand, A. Carillo, R. Cornes, A. Dell’Aquila, C. Dubois, D. Efthymiadis, A. Elizalde, L. Gimeno, C.M. Goodess, A. Harzallah, S.O. Krichak, F.G. Kuglitsch, G.C. Leckebusch, B.L’Hévéder, L. Li, P. Lionello, J. Luterbacher, A. Mariotti, R. Nieto, K.M. Nissen, P. Oddo, P. Ruti, A. Sanna, G. Sannino, E. Scoccimarro, F. Sevault, M.V. Struglia, A. Toreti, U. Ulbrich and E. Xoplaki, 2012: Future Climate Projections in Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean. 
In: Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean, A. Navarra, L.Tubiana (eds.), Springer, 2012, Dordrecht, The Netherlands. 

Ulbrich, U.; Lionello, P.; Belušić, D.; Jacobeit, J.; Knippertz, P.; Kuglitsch, F. G.; Leckebusch, G.C., Luterbacher, J., Maugeri, M., Maheras, P., Nissen, K. M., Pavan, V., Pinto, J.G.; Saaroni, H.; Seubert, S.; Toreti, A.; Xoplaki, E.; Ziv, B., 2012: Climate of the Mediterranean: synoptic patterns, temperature, precipitation, winds, and their extremes.
In: The Climate of the Mediterranean Region - From the Past to the Future. P. Lionello (ed.), Elsevier, 2012, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. ISBN: 9780124160422.